not rocket science
The best predictor we had for what the billionaires expected Trump to do as president is what those same billionaires expected Biden to do when he was president, only intensified: prioritize Wall St, corporate profits, weapons systems, AI, the police state, the military, and border control. In other words exactly what happened. And if these same billionaires are allowed to stay in charge, the best predictor of what the next president will do is what the current one is doing, only intensified.
If we don’t like the sound of that, and in our efforts to fight the increasingly violent and unfair policies of our government, we look for global, historical comparisons, the most obvious comparison of how the government operates under the current president is obviously how the government operated under the last president. From there, the closest comparisons would be to look further back into U.S. history.
From the beginning, this country has been organized around an extreme form of capitalism, around slavery, and around genocide. Because these historical facts have barely been reckoned with in a substantive way by the American mainstream, they still guide the culture and policy of the country. So the best strategies and examples for opposing American violence and injustice are to be found right here, within the ongoing history of U.S. dissent.
Comparing Trump to Hitler can also be interesting, but useful only up to a point. The Third Reich was not an aging, decadent superpower. It was an attempt to build an impoverished, hated country back after its humiliating defeat in WWI. Hitler had no impunity to commit war crimes. The world currency was not the Deutschmark. He had to repeatedly trick other world leaders into believing that Germany was an aggrieved party, justified in its conquests, each of which was sold to them as his last. He had to convince the world that Austria wanted to be united with Germany, and that Czeckoslovakia, Norway, Lithuaniana, and Poland had German minorities that were being violently oppressed and needed to be saved. It was all lies, but my point is that this dynamic was completely different from the U.S. now, or at any time in our history.
If we are looking for foreign historical comparisons, the most helpful ones would be the bloated empires of the past — other empires that punished other nations for nothing more than getting in the way of their own imperial aggrandizement, empires that enslaved people, empires that committed genocides with impunity, empires that ultimately collapsed. Going in reverse chronological order, that would be the British empire, the Hapsburg empire, the Dutch empire, the Iberian empires, the Venetian empire, and the Roman empire. All of which imploded for the same reasons: military overextension, overfinancialization of the economy, an unsustainable gap between rich and poor, and rebellions / mutinies / independence movements in their client states, conquered territories, military opponents, and own armed forces.
What are the lessons we can learn from this history? To avoid utter ruin, the population within the imperial core must take control away from its tiny ruling class elite, and reverse the military overextension, reverse the overfinancialization of the economy, close the unsustainable gap between rich and poor, and grant independence, freedom, and reparations to current client states, conquered states, military opponents, and veterans.
Our other option is simply to wait for our empire to end in the usual way: military defeat, the popping of economic bubbles, and the resulting utter ruin and mass death.
Although it is not the most historically effective way, the most commonly talked about way to defeat the imperialist elite who would bring this disaster upon the U.S. is through elections. But this is only possible if there are viable anti-imperialist candidates. Otherwise the U.S. will continue to follow its rather predictable course, leading to its collapse.
Understanding what voters want from their leaders is hardly rocket science. Americans, and Dem voters in particular, have had enough of politicians controlled by billionaires. They want a livable planet for their children. They want Medicare For All. They want abortion legalized. They want the war on trans people stopped. They want minimum wage raised. And they don’t feel that they owe any more money to ICE or Israeli genocide.
Going forward, it’s no longer going to be enough for Dem politicians to appeal to ordinary Americans with words. Right now the party is behaving as if it’s a greater offense to say that you support rape, torture, murder and pillage than it is to actually commit rape, torture, murder and pillage.
The most common tactic used against such Dems — public shaming — has proven less and less effective. I’d guess that a sense of dignity is pretty low on the priority list of most Dem politicians. It’s obviously not a priority whatsoever for most Republicans, but I think Dems have gradually joined them in having no shame about being hated / yelled at / the victim of memes.
Right now there is a lot of public energy warning Dems that their imperialist, pro-ICE, pro-genocide, pro-billionaire candidates are total non-starters and will almost surely lose. I of course completely agree. But this tactic assumes that Dems’ top priority is winning elections. I’m not so sure.
While winning elections may be a Dem goal, it’s probably no higher than fourth on their list of priorities. Their bigger priorities all have to do with money. First is DNC fundraising. They are a profit-seeking corporation after all. Second would be the personal comfort, wealth and safety of the individual career politicians themselves. Third would be returning favors to their corporate paymasters. So if our goal is to defeat the far right and stave off imperial collapse and utter ruin, threatening Dems with losing elections is not as going to be as effective a strategy as hitting them financially.
The first step is obvious. We can’t just threaten not to vote for imperialist, pro-ICE, pro-genocide, pro-billionaire candidates, but must refuse to donate to them, or even treat them as legitimate possibilities in any way. The next step is to put economic pressure on the billionaires and corporations that are underwriting those candidates. This is being done through boycotts, strikes, and lawsuits. Third step would be to join those donating what money/time/energy/endorsements they have to candidates and parties that actively oppose imperialism, ICE, genocide, and billionaires.